Wednesday, July 26, 2006

Waiting for Today to Unfold

Nassaralla made some interesting promises yesterday. Apparently he has given the order for his people to launch rockets at points to the south of Haifa. Well, I guess it's "let's see what you've got, Nassy". The threat has been in the air for so long, I wonder how much there is to it. I noticed he didn't specifically say Tel Aviv. I guess launching his long-range Zilzals is out of the question (too easy to detect prior to launch), so let's see if he's got anything else interesting.

Another pearl of wisdom from his latest interview -
Nasrallah said his organization was ready to discuss an end to the fighting, but the dignity and national interest of Lebanon was what he termed a "red line," a reference to the heavy Israeli bombing and ground assaults on the country.

I think it's been long established the the national interest of Lebanon was either not on his mind when he launched recent attacks, or that his interpretation of that is quite different from that of most sane Lebanese people. That leaves us with the issue of dignity and honor. I've been wondering for a while what will be the point where Israel can stop the fighting, having reached a victory. What will be the tangible form of such a victory. In other words, what will make Hezbulla and its allies understand that they have indeed been defeated. I guess the answer lies within this dignity issue. I know, not very tangible after all. Thinking aloud here, I would be interested to hear some responses from people. What would be considered an ultimate blow to the Hezbulla? what would make them realize they have been brought down to their knees? to realize that attacking Israel is an exercise in futility that should never be tried again? Is it really a matter of physically killing every Hezbulla fighter and destroying every launcher? or is there a point before that where we will make them realize they have lost this war?

6 comments:

Jean said...

my point of view, you will never hear them say that they lost the war, no matter what.
They are not a regular organization, or an army.
Even if they are in a very bad shape, they are likely to say, we will win, because god (sigh) wants us to.

As to when it would be considered that IDF won, well, maybe when the IDF weakens HA to the point that the lebanese could finish it off, or at least its armed division.
I'm sad to say, The job is far from being done.

Regards,
Jean
--

Anonymous said...

There are two answers to your question, "what would be considered a victory for Israel and a defeat for Hazaballah.

First, If you think that Nassaralla and his bunch of fanatic's would ever admit defeat to the world, let alone to the screw balls he has convienced to get themself killed in the name of Allah, you better not hold your breath.

Second, the only win in all of this for Israel is to completely destroy Hazaballh ability to make war. At the very least,Israel must remove them from southern Lebanon. But more realisticly, Hazaballah needs to get out of Lebanon and let the lebanese people run there own country. At this point, the chance of that is slim. That being so, some sort of International force (not the type that the UN have had in the country for the last six years) but a strong force that will have the backing of both the UN and the UE. There job would be to make sure that no arms would get into the hands of the Hazaballah and no missals would be fired into Israel. Most of all they would need to keep Hazaballh from ever returning to Southern Lebanon.

Jad Aoun said...

There is only one criterion that will determine Hezbollah's success in the battle: if it survives, in any shape or form. With that in mind, it is very hard to see Hezbollah defeated. We dont have to look far to confirm this - Iraq. Hezbollah is similar to the insurgents/terrorists. Three years on, they are still fighting.

As for the stablizing force, I have my doubts about its effectiveness. Let's say a NATO force enters Lebanon and takes over security of southern Lebanon. What would they do if Hezbollah fires a missle into Israel? Attack Hezbollah? Bring NATO into the Middle East conflict? When Western troops arrived in 80s as a peace keeping force, they fired back at warring factions. Soon after, people started calling them the international militia and did not see them as a stablization force. If NATO fired back, it would mean that NATO supports Israel and the forces would be considered an occupation force.

That is why I have serious reservations about a military solution before a political solution is in place.

le lezard said...

and furthermore, if Hezbollah is crushed, you will be then facing individuals who will grow even more dangerous and hateful.
It is a sad perspective for my country.

please go to http://july2006.forumco.com/default.asp
and if you have a bolg, post it as a link.
we can all start talking, maybe something can come up, or maybe someone can be a little less hateful and a little bit more understanding.

steve said...

These guys are right. Hezbollah will simply never concede defeat. I fear part of that is the religious fanatic's ability to apply huge dollops of "denial" to any reality. Plus, they speak in such absurd hyperbole ("mother of all battles", etc. ) that reality doesn't seem to make alot of difference.
Hezbollah were clearly the aggressors in this conflict. They need a muzzle and one hopes an international force with a mandate of disarming them will be applied. To return to a staus quo where they basicly have a "state within a state" is destabilizing not only in Lebanon but in the entire district. Chances are, enabling the Lebanese Army to strengthen itself (if Lebanon wants this) while holding Hezbollah at bay, would be the best result. Then the Lenaese could police themselves. I cannot imagine Lebanoin wants these characters acting like religious freaks and firing crap at Israel like psychotic bank robbers.

IsrealiMom said...

Cool link there, Le Lezard! Thanks! I'm having problems signing up there.

I am actually toying with a similar idea, of starting Middle East forums, to discuss issues related to the Middle East between people from the region. I'm a webmaster, so I thought of doing this full scale, i.e. proper domain name, hosting and such. My idea is slightly different though, I want to make a stand with the board, not a free-for-all thing. I might blog about it at some point, see if I get any positive reactions. Le Lezard, can you please email me - israelimom@gmail.com ? Maybe we can discuss this idea and others via email?